Iran’s Tanker Attacks: Is the Rebound in Crude Oil Exports Doomed?
Can the rebound in crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf be sustained in the face of stepped-up Iranian tanker attacks? Nearly 20 commercial ships have been attacked in the past month while sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the fragile rebound. The US military commitment to protect tankers is seen as unsustainable financially, and oil flows through the strait now depend on this major commitment. The shuttle system, where tankers transfer oil to ships in the Gulf of Oman, reduces exposure to attack but requires more vessels and is seen as an inefficient way to move commodities. As the security situation in Hormuz remains dangerous, a negotiated settlement or capitulation by Tehran is necessary to sustain the rebound.
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