Bitcoin’s Price Surge May Not Be Enough to Save Miners
Will Bitcoin's recent price surge be enough to save miners from financial ruin? The answer is far from clear, as a projected 2.48% difficulty decline in the network's next adjustment suggests that miners may still struggle to stay afloat. Despite a modest increase in gross revenue per unit of computing power, fees supplied only 0.45% of rewards, leaving miners overwhelmingly dependent on block subsidies and price. The early block pace shows that the network's next adjustment remains unsettled, and a downward retarget would provide stronger evidence that effective network hashrate had softened. But what would make the improvement durable? A larger fee contribution, a price remaining above the prior modeled hurdle, and a downward retarget that survives a much larger share of the epoch would all contribute to a more stable mining environment. But for now, the strongest conclusion is that Bitcoin's rally more than offset the finalized difficulty increase, producing a modest gross-revenue reprieve.
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